Bloomberg Analysts Predict Over 90% Chance of US Approval for Bitcoin ETF, Polymarket Trims Odds to 83%

Source: iStock/pichet_w

Bloomberg analysts are increasingly optimistic about the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, with the odds now exceeding 90%. 

In a recent post, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting proposals following a flurry of updated filings. 

Balchunas stated that he would assign a mere 5% chance of rejection, leaving a small possibility open for such outcomes. 

Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024

Back in November, he had initially estimated the odds at 90%, citing positive signs from the updated forms submitted by ETF providers at the time.

On the other hand, participants on Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on various outcomes, have displayed a less optimistic view regarding the approval timeline. 

The betting market on Polymarket suggests that the odds of approval before January 15 have decreased, with participants wagering around $500,000 on the approval being delayed or even denied. 

This has led to a decline from last week’s 90% likelihood of approval.

Crypto Market Hopes for Bitcoin ETF Approval This Week

Much of the crypto market remains hopeful that key decisions from the SEC this week will pave the way for the launch of the first spot bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs are targeted at professional investors in the United States. 

The introduction of regulated offerings is expected to attract significant demand for bitcoin. This decision can potentially become one of the most significant catalysts in the asset’s history.

As reported, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and one of the contenders seeking to launch a spot bitcoin ETF, is expecting its application to be approved by this Wednesday.

BlackRock is among several firms that submitted updated 19b-4 filings on Friday for proposed spot bitcoin ETFs. 

Other companies in the mix include Grayscale Investments, Valkyrie, ARK 21Shares, and Invesco. 

In addition, the Cboe BZX exchange filed forms for VanEck, WisdomTree, Pando Asset AG, and Franklin Templeton last week.

More than a dozen applicants are vying to be the first to launch spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. 

Recent amended 19b-4 filings, submitted on behalf of prominent issuers such as BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity, have joined last month’s amended S-1 filings, which aimed to address feedback from the SEC.

Both the 19b-4 filings and the S-1 filings need to receive the SEC’s approval before the ETFs can be officially launched.

There have recently been some rumors that approval can come in the near future. 

On Thursday afternoon, senior TechCrunch crypto reporter Jacquelyn Melinek said that approval could occur within 24 hours. 

“Heard from sources extremely close to the matter that the bitcoin spot ETF is going to be approved by the SEC for *multiple* firms’ applications… expecting something tomorrow.”

Furthermore, according to a Reuters report, investment management firms, stock exchanges, and the SEC discussed final wording changes on filings for spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday. This is a step that could lead to approval of the funds for the first time next week. 

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