Bitcoin Price Thrives on Fear, Expert Reveals
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has long been regarded as a barometer for investor sentiment — bringing together factors including volatility, trading volumes, Bitcoin’s dominance, and trends on social media.
For the best part of two weeks, it’s been flashing a score below 40 — putting it into Fear territory — following on from Donald Trump escalating his trade war against China, and brutal liquidations across the crypto market.
But according to a new report, fear isn’t something to be afraid of… it can actually be quite a big opportunity.
Copper examined 40 fear events to examine what happened next — and found that, once the index enters this territory, Bitcoin typically drops by 10% to 12% within about three to four weeks. However, a rebound often follows — ranging between 15% and 30% in the six to ten weeks after that.
“The October 2025 setup fits this historical pattern almost perfectly, suggesting the low near $102,000 to $103,000 may mark another Fear-driven bottom with recovery potential toward $125,000 to $130,000 by mid-December.”
In essence, Copper’s report suggests that the bull run might not be over just yet — and Bitcoin could once again return to all-time highs above $126,198.07 by the end of this year.
However, this also shows how expectations are being managed following a pretty disappointing Q4 so far. Octobers are normally when BTC performs the strongest, so much so that it’s been given the nickname “Uptober.” But at the time of writing, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency has gained just 1.02% during the month — and at certain points, it’s also been on the brink of confirming its first loss since 2018.
As recently as October 5, Polymarket odds had also suggested BTC had an 86% chance of cracking $130,000 in 2025. Fast forward to now, and those odds have tumbled to a mere 54%.
Unsurprisingly, this also means the likelihood of a record-breaking surge to $140,000 or $150,000 have also fallen. The bigger question now is this: are we now in the dying embers of the bull run, or are Bitcoin’s four-year cycles beginning to lengthen — meaning bigger price surges will only happen in 2026?
Copper went on to caution that there could be the potential for a bigger rebound from recent lows. Examining the 95th-percentile recovery after a Fear event, its researchers found that the $150,000 region could start to be tested early next year.
“In context, Bitcoin’s post-ETF market behaviour compresses these Fear cycles into shorter and shallower moves, but the rhythm is unchanged. The amplitude of drawdowns has declined, yet the pattern of capitulation and rebound remains intact.”
All of this has led Copper to describe the recent contraction as a “reset, not a reversal” — reinforcing the narrative that corrections are a healthy part of bull runs, as continual rises without any pullbacks don’t end up proving to be sustainable. Copper’s head of research, Fadi Aboulafa, told Cryptonews:
“Every time Fear takes hold of the market, the data tells a similar story: Bitcoin tends to pull back sharply, then rebound harder. What we’re seeing right now fits that historical rhythm almost perfectly. This latest dip to around $103,000 looks very much like the exhaustion point we’ve seen in past cycles. If that holds, historical data suggests we could be in the early stages of a recovery phase, with prices trending back toward the $125,000 to $130,000 range before year-end.”
Of course, there are distinctive factors that make the current bull run different to what we’ve seen in the past. For one, Donald Trump has proven to be a volatile influence on global markets — regularly announcing seismic policies on Truth Social.
Next, it’s important to consider the factor of the exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin’s spot price on Wall Street. It’s easy to forget that these products are a fairly recent innovation, given they only started trading in January 2024. Industry analysts have argued that the arrival of institutional inflows has led to less volatility overall. While that may mean drawdowns aren’t as harsh as they used to be, this could also prevent sudden and dramatic moves upward — preventing the so-called “God candles” that Bitcoiners fantasize about online.
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