QCP: Options Markets Signal Bullish Shift After Crypto Breakout
Crypto markets broke decisively higher in early Asian trading after a range-bound December, with Bitcoin climbing above $92,000 and Ether pushing past $3,100.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin and Ether broke out of their December ranges as risk-on sentiment returned across global markets. QCP sees the move as a potential regime shift, aided by fading tax-loss selling and renewed policy optionality. Options markets turned more constructive, though positioning remains cautious despite rising upside demand.The move came alongside firmer global equities and softer oil prices, pointing to a broader return of risk appetite at the start of the year, according to QCP’s latest Asia Colour note.
QCP: Crypto Rally Signals Regime Shift as Risk Appetite Returns
QCP said the rally looks increasingly like a shift in market regime rather than a short-lived bounce.
The fading impact of year-end tax-loss selling has removed a key drag on prices, while renewed policy optionality has returned to investor focus.
In that context, crypto’s strength appears more closely aligned with traditional risk assets than it did late last year.
Geopolitical headlines also fed into the narrative. Markets were digesting news of a US special forces operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now expected to face proceedings in the United States.
QCP noted that lower oil prices could add a disinflationary tailwind, while speculation around seized digital assets has fueled talk of a potential “shadow” Bitcoin reserve.
The firm cautioned against treating such claims as fact, but said the idea reinforces an existing theme of sovereign interest in crypto holdings.
Derivatives markets have turned more supportive. QCP observed that put skew has compressed, signaling reduced demand for downside protection, while interest has grown in longer-dated upside exposure, including January 2026 $100,000 Bitcoin calls.
Demand for topside structures such as straddles has also picked up. Still, QCP warned that positioning remains measured.
“A continued spot grind higher raises the odds of a gamma-assisted extension, though recent U.S. sessions have faded rallies often enough to keep positioning disciplined,” the firm said.
Whale Inflows to Binance Rise as Buying Power Stalls, Analysts Warn
Large crypto holders moved roughly $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether onto Binance over the past week, marking the exchange’s largest net inflow in about a month.
On-chain data cited by CryptoOnchain shows deposits were split almost evenly between the two assets, a pattern often linked to preparation for selling or the use of assets as derivatives collateral.
Analysts highlighted a key imbalance behind the inflows. Stablecoin movements remained largely flat at around $42 million for the week, with most activity reflecting transfers between blockchains rather than new capital entering the market.
Meanwhile, Abra CEO Bill Barhydt believes Bitcoin could benefit in 2026 as easing monetary policy injects fresh liquidity into global markets, reviving risk appetite after a prolonged period of tight financial conditions.
Barhydt said the US central bank is already laying the groundwork for looser policy.
He pointed to early signs of renewed balance sheet support, describing the current environment as “quantitative easing light,” with the Federal Reserve stepping in to support demand for government debt.
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