Weaker Dollar and Steeper Curve Could Fuel Bitcoin Recovery, Analysts Say

Bitcoin has entered 2026 with early signs of stabilization after a challenging end to 2025. The cryptocurrency consolidated between $85,000 and $94,000 while gaining over 3% in the first trading sessions as equities softened.

According to Bitfinex analysts, the shift follows a year-end marked by thin liquidity and tax-loss harvesting, which pushed BTC down 6.44% in 2025, even as the S&P 500 closed near record highs with a 16.33% annual gain.

Source: Bitfinex Report

The pace of ETF-driven selling has also slowed materially heading into year-end, suggesting much of the de-risking may already be priced in.

With liquidity conditions expected to improve through early 2026, analysts believe upcoming ETF flow data will prove critical in determining whether fresh institutional capital returns to digital assets or caution continues to dominate positioning.

Macro Backdrop Shifts as Yield Curve Steepens

Bitfinex analysts assert that two reinforcing trends are shaping US macro conditions:

Steepening yield curve. Structurally weaker dollar.

The Treasury curve has moved decisively out of the inverted state it held from 2022 to 2024, driven by expectations of eventual policy easing at the front end.

At the same time, long-dated yields remain elevated due to inflation uncertainty, heavy issuance, and fiscal concerns.

Source: Bitfinex Report

The spread between two-year and 30-year Treasuries has widened to approximately 140 basis points, while the two-to-ten-year curve has reached around 70 basis points.

Analysts noted this configuration as a repricing of duration and credibility risk rather than renewed growth optimism, keeping financial conditions tighter than headline rate cuts alone would suggest.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened meaningfully year to date, declining roughly 9% from January 2025 levels despite a modest rebound toward year-end.

Source: Bitfinex Report

The depreciation, according to analysts, reflects policy preferences for improved trade competitiveness and a gradual reassessment of US policy credibility following tariff decisions and multilateral withdrawals earlier in the year.

Beyond immediate currency dynamics, the report noted that the dollar’s structural foundations remain intact, supported by deep capital markets and sustained demand for Treasuries.

The balance of risks points to a managed depreciation rather than a reversal, creating an environment where elevated long-end yields and a softer dollar reward assets with near-term cash flows and defensive characteristics.

Corporate and Sovereign Crypto Adoption Advances

Corporate treasury-led accumulation remained a dominant theme through year-end. Strategy Inc. reinforced its long-term Bitcoin approach with another early-January purchase, lifting its holdings to 673,783 BTC.

BitMine Immersion Technologies also deepened its commitment to Ethereum, growing its holdings to roughly 4.14 million ETH while expanding into staking and validator infrastructure.

Analysts particularly noted the company’s shift from passive accumulation toward yield-generating, on-chain strategies, with approximately 408,627 ETH already staked and plans to launch a proprietary validator network in early Q1 2026.

Chairman Thomas Lee characterized BitMine as “a leading source of incremental demand for ETH,” citing continued accumulation amid year-end selling pressure.

The company added more than 32,977 ETH in the most recent week alone as seasonal tax-related dynamics created favorable entry points for long-term buyers.

At the sovereign level, Bitfinex analysts also noted Turkmenistan’s introduction of a legal framework permitting domestic crypto mining and trading under central bank oversight, marking a notable policy shift for one of the world’s most closed economies.

While the law formalizes licensing and regulatory supervision, it stops short of recognizing cryptocurrencies as legal tender and maintains strict controls on internet access.

Analysts See Selective Liquidity Environment Ahead

“While Bitcoin consolidated in a tight range to close 2025, likely weighed down by year-end tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing, the new year has opened with glimmers of positivity,” Bitfinex analysts told Cryptonews.

“The US Treasury curve has moved decisively out of the inverted state it experienced from 2022-2024, reflecting a macro environment where liquidity improves selectively.“

The combination of elevated long-end yields and a softer dollar defines an environment that rewards assets with near-term cash flows, pricing power, and real or defensive characteristics, which can significantly benefit Bitcoin.

“As we move into early 2026, upcoming ETF flow data will be the critical signal to confirm whether institutional appetite is truly re-entering the market or if caution still dominates positioning,” the analysts added.

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