Senate Crypto Bill Faces Make-or-Break Vote Next Week But Key Divisions Threaten Collapse

An imminent vote in the U.S. Senate may set the stage for the longstanding attempts to develop a federal model to regulate the crypto industry because the legislators are still at odds regarding major policy and political aspects.

The Senate Banking Committee chair, Tim Scott, announced on Tuesday that he will introduce the crypto market structure bill to the markup on January 15 as a hard deadline to the months-long stalled negotiations.

Senate Crypto Bill Moves Forward, but the Math Is Still Unclear

The proposal mirrors much of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed by the House last July and is designed to define how most digital assets are regulated in the United States.

If approved in committee, the bill would move to the Senate floor, but if it fails, its prospects this year could effectively collapse.

Scott said lawmakers have reviewed multiple drafts over the past six months and should be willing to go on record, even without full agreement, adding that “at some point, accountability matters.”

Still, it is unclear whether the bill has enough support to clear committee, let alone secure the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

Several Democrats, along with a handful of Republicans, have pushed back on the accelerated timeline, arguing that core issues remain unresolved.

Those tensions have persisted since 2025, when supporters initially aimed for passage by the mid-year, then by October, and finally by the end of 2025.

Every deadline was missed, as this was a reflection not only of the complexity of the bill but also of the increasing reluctance of the political to take risks as the 2026 midterm elections draw near.

This week, talks again escalated, and bipartisan staff and White House officials started to look at what Republicans claimed as their final offer.

A summary of that proposal shows several issues still open, including ethics rules tied to conflicts of interest, restrictions on stablecoin yield products, quorum requirements at federal regulators, and provisions affecting decentralized finance.

DeFi has emerged as one of the most sensitive fault lines, as crypto advocates want protections for developers and open-source software, arguing that code should not be treated as a regulated financial intermediary.

Democrats have raised concerns about money laundering, sanctions evasion, and national security risks if such safeguards are too broad.

Clarity Act Push Exposes Deep Divisions in Crypto Oversight

At its core, the Clarity Act would split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and establish tests to determine whether a digital asset is a security or a commodity.

Industry reaction to Scott’s decision to force a markup has been mixed, with some lobbyists warning that moving ahead without bipartisan consensus could doom the bill outright.

Others argue that a recorded vote is necessary to avoid repeating past cycles in which House-passed crypto bills quietly stalled in the Senate.

The political backdrop adds further risk; with midterms nearing, Democrats may be reluctant to hand Republicans a bipartisan win, particularly on legislation linked to President Donald Trump, whose family’s reported involvement in crypto ventures has raised conflict-of-interest concerns.

Analysts at TD Cowen warned earlier today that the bill faces growing headwinds as lawmakers shift into campaign mode, raising the possibility that final passage slips to 2027.

Crypto companies, including Coinbase, continue to press lawmakers to act, pointing to Europe’s MiCA framework and clearer rules in jurisdictions like the UAE as evidence the U.S. is falling behind.

Others, however, see the “final offer” as a sign talks are nearing an impasse rather than a breakthrough, making next week’s vote a make-or-break moment.

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